How China could win 2021’s space race and take Mars as its prize
Space Age 2.0
Different countries have different development models when it comes to space, so the new space race is partly a competition for having the best approach. This reflects the specific character of the so-calledSpace Age 2.0, which, compared to the first one, looks more diverse, and where non-US actors, public and private, feature prominentlyespecially Asian ones. If China leads the pack, so does its vision.
But there are bigger things at stake. The development effort behind China’s space sector is still largelygovernment-fundedandmilitary-led. According to theUS-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressional commission of the US government, China considers space as a “tool of geopolitical and diplomatic competition.” It is clear that, together with cyberspace, the cosmos has become a fundamentalnew war fighting domain, where the US is the main – but not the only – adversary. That means commercial considerations come second for many countries, even though they have become increasingly important in the overall scheme of things.
China has already enacted five-year plans for its space activities, the latest of whichended in 2020 with more than 140 launches. More missions are planned: a neworbital space station, the retrieval ofmartian samples, and aJupiter exploratory missionamong them.
While the resources committed by the country remain largely an unknown (we only know what’s included in the five-year plans), US estimates for 2017 put this figure atUS$11 billion(£8 billion), second only to the US itself – NASA’s budget for the same year wasabout US$20 billion(£15 billion).
India has taken quitea different approach, where civilian and commercial interests have long been predominant. Following NASA’s model of transparency, the country publishes reports of its activities and the annual spending (about US$1 billion yearly (£740,000) of its space agency, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO).
Different in ambitions, scope, and investments, the Indian space program has achieved some remarkable successes, such as commercializing affordable launching services to countries eager to send their own satellites into orbit. In 2017, India made history with the largest number of satellites – 104 — ever launched by a rocketon a single missionto date, all but three foreign-owned and built (that record has only been beaten by SpaceX a few days ago,with 143 satellites). Even more impressive is the comparatively low cost of India’s Mars mission, US$74 million (£55 million) –about ten times less expensive than NASA’s Maven mission. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, quipped that the whole missioncost less than the Hollywood movie, Gravity.
Due to geopolitical and rivalry concerns, this might be about to change. India’s government released its 2019-20 annual report, which shows a growingmilitary involvementin the space sector. And another Moon and Venus missionsare well on the Indian ISRO plans, in case the Chinese were not already motivated enough in making Tianwen-1 a resounding success. Space Race 2.0 is definitively warming up.
This article bySteffi Paladini, Reader in Economics & Global Security,Birmingham City Universityis republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
Story byThe Conversation
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