How COVID-19 is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels
Renewable energy
In renewable energy, solar photovoltaics and onshore wind are now the most economic new form of electricity generation for at least two-thirds of the global population, according toenergy research provider BloombergNEF.
In Australia, the latest analysis of electricity generation costsby the Australian Energy Market Operator and CSIROshows solar photovoltaics and wind are already cheaper than coal and gas. Solar PV costs are also predicted to fall sharply over the next decade, reducing its generation costs from about A$50 a megawatt hour to A$30 by 2030.
The following graph for renewable energy and coal consumption in the United States shows the acceleration towards renewables is well underway.
Statistics published last week by theUS Energy Information Administrationshow in 2019 coal production fell to its lowest level since 1978. In 2020 coal production is projected to fall to 1960s levels.
Across all member nations of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (including Australia), the International Energy Agency’slatest monthly statisticsshow coal production in April was down 32% in April 2019. Electricity generation from all non-renewables was down 12%. But the generation from renewables was up 3%.
Electromobility
Electromobility encompasses electric vehicles including cars, buses, andtrackless trams. Globally, BloombergNEFprojects electric vehiclesto comprise 3% of new passenger car sales in 2020, 10% in 2025, 28% in 2030, and 58% in 2040.
Leading the charge is Europe, where sales of electric vehicles actually increased by7.5% in the first quarterof 2020, bucking the global downturn for electric cars and the industry overall.
The only major carmaker toincrease sales was Tesla, selling 88,496 cars. Its second-quarter sales of 90,650 cars were just 5% down on a year ago, compared to falls of about 25% for other makers. Tesla’s booming share price saw it overtake Toyota in May to become the world’s mostvaluable car maker.
Smart-city technology
Smart-city technology involves using sensors, machine learning, artificial intelligence, block-chain, and the “internet of things” to improve infrastructure efficiency. They have been growing in use for transport, energy, and housing.
Road sensors can help traffic managers coordinate traffic signals tocut congestionor to guide fast electric buses andtrackless trams through traffic. Apps help us navigate through cities, and to know precisely when buses or trains are due.
In energy grids, smart technology can be used to balance electricity supply and demand and to createlow-cost and localized electricity markets.
In housing, smart systems can improve all aspects of a home’s energy and environmental performance.
Curtin University has partnered with Western Australia’s land development agency to integrate these technologies into theEast Village housing projectin Fremantle. It will use blockchain technology to leverage photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicles, and water heating in a micro-grid supplying100% renewable powerto a community of 36 homes. This cluster of innovations are modular, so developers can experiment and then scale up.
Brake or accelerate
The economic and cultural benefits of renewable energy generation, electromobility, and smart-city technologies are clear. They will lead to a cleaner, greener economywith many more new jobs.
Together I estimate they have the potential to reduce the use of fossil fuel by 80% in a decade.
Eliminating the last 20% – gas and coal used in industrial processes such as steel production and mineral processing, and fossil fuels used for long-haul road, sea and air transport – will be harder.
But hydrogen made with renewable energy can potentially replace fossil fuels in all these applications, though developing and commercializing the technology and needed infrastructure will likely take a decade or more.
Australia is already a global leader in the uptake of solar generation and battery storage. We are also doing well in smart city technologies. But we have been slow in electromobility, and we will need to invest more in hydrogen research, development, and deployment.
The only thing that will put the brake on these technologies becoming the core of the new economy sooner rather than later are backward-looking government policies that seek to prop up an obsolete fossil-fuel economy.
This article is republished fromThe ConversationbyPeter Newman, Professor of Sustainability,Curtin Universityunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
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