It’s been 66 million long years since an asteroid erased the dinosaurs — and astronomers are getting antsy.
In the last few months, they’ve warned that space rocks as big asthe Eiffel Tower,the Empire State Building, andthe Great Pyramid of Gizacould all miss Earth byjust millionsof miles.
In response, NASA is resorting to increasingly desperate measures. Aftersimulating catastrophe impactsandslapping asteroids with spaceships, the agency on Monday unveiled its most outlandish weapon yet: analgorithm.
Named Sentry-II, the system will evaluate the threats posed bynear-Earth asteroids (NEAs).
In a press release, NASA said the system can rapidly assess potential impacts for all known NEAs — with odds as low as a few chances in 10 million.
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The software is an upgrade to the original Sentry, which has been in operation since 2002.
The first version of the systemhad several shortcomings. While itaccurately modeled how gravity shaped an asteroid’s orbit, it didn’t integrate non-gravitational forces — such as sunlight heating the object’s dayside.
It could also struggle to forecastasteroids that come extremely close to Earth, as their motion gets erratically deflected by our planet’s gravity.
Sentry-II was created to overcome these limitations.
A key aspect of predicting asteroid impacts is modeling uncertainty. While the original Sentry made some assumptions about an asteroid’s orbit, the new software applies a different approach.
It first models thousands of random points throughout the “uncertainty region” of the rock’s trajectory. The algorithm then evaluates all the possible orbits within this entire area.
As a result, Sentry-II can assess low probability impact scenarios that its assumptive predecessor could have missed.
“Sentry-II is a fantastic advancement in finding tiny impact probabilities for a huge range of scenarios,” said NASA’s Steve Chesley, who worked on both systems.
“When the consequences of a future asteroid impact are so big, it pays to find even the smallest impact risk hiding in the data.”
Indeed, it can take eons before the full impact is revealed. Scientists only recently discovered that the dino-killing asteroid may havehelped snakes to thrive on Earth.
The next devastatingspacerock could have even deeper repercussions. Ifthe meme propheciesare to be believed, it won’t just obliterate humanity — it may also wreck the stock market.
Story byThomas Macaulay
Thomas is a senior reporter at TNW. He covers European tech, with a focus on AI, cybersecurity, and government policy.Thomas is a senior reporter at TNW. He covers European tech, with a focus on AI, cybersecurity, and government policy.
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