When the first baby is born off-Earth, it will be a milestone as momentous as humanity’s first stepsout of Africa. Such a birth would mark the beginning of a multi–planet civilization for the human species.
For the first half-century of the Space Age, only governments launched satellites and people into Earth orbit. No longer.Hundreds of private space companiesare building a new industry that already has US$300 billion inannual revenue.
I’m a professor of astronomy who has written abookand a number ofarticlesabout humans’ future in space. Today, all activity in space is tethered to the Earth. But I predict that in around 30 years people will start living in space – and soon after, the first off-Earth baby will be born.
China recently sent both an orbiter and rover to Mars using the Tianwen-1 rocket, seen here. Image via China News Service/WikimediaCommons, CC BY
The players in space
Space started as a duopoly as the United States and the Soviet Union vied for supremacy in a geopolitical contest with loud military overtones. But while NASA achieved the Moon landings in 1969, its budget has sinceshrunk by a factor of three. Russia is no longer an economic superpower, and its presence in space is apale shadowof the program that launched the first satellite and the first person into orbit.
The new kid on the block is China. After a late start, the Chinese space program is surging,fueled by a budgetthat has recently grown faster than their economy. China is building aspace station, the country has landed probes on theMoonandMars, and it is planning aMoon base. On its current trajectory, China will soon be thedominant space power.
Elon Musk plans to use the SpaceX Starship, seen here, to send people first to the Moon and then to Mars. Image via Jaredkrahn/WikimediaCommons, CC BY-SA
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But the most exciting progress is being made by private space companies that are marketing space for tourism and recreation. Elon Musk’s goal for SpaceX is to carry 100 people at a time to theMoon, Mars and beyond, although inpublic presentationshe is coy about giving a timeline. Jeff Bezos’ company, Blue Origins, also aims to colonize thesolar system. Such grandiose plans have skeptics, but remember that these are the tworichest people in the world.
Governments will continue to launch rockets, but it would be safe to say that the future of private space flight arrived in 2016 when, for the first time,commercial launches outnumberedlaunches by all the world’s countries combined.
Living on the Moon or Mars
For a spacecraft, thetrip to Marsis about 1,000 times farther than a trip to the Moon, so the Moon will be humanity’s first home away from home.
China is partnering with Russia to build a long-term facility at the Moon’s South Pole sometimebetween 2036 and 2045. NASA plans to put “boots on the Moon” in 2024 and establish a a permanent settlement called the Artemis Base Campwithin another decade. As part of the Artemis mission, NASA is also planning to launch a lunar space station in 2024 calledGateway. NASA is teaming up with SpaceX for this and future lunar projects, and the lunar station will make it easier for SpaceX to resupply the futurelunar colony.
After the Moon comes Mars, and the collaboration between SpaceX and NASA isaccelerating the timeline for getting there.NASA’s plansare purposeful, but the organization hasn’t given a timeline. Elon Musk, on the other hand, has loudly proclaimed that he intends to have acolony on Mars by 2050. Humanity’s attempt to colonize the Moon will give us a good sense of the challenges we might face on Mars.
Large space stations with hotels and living space for private citizens will likely be the first option for most people to get to space. Image via Cokada/WikimediaCommons
Sex and babies in space
For a civilization to be really free from Earth, the population needs to grow, and that means babies. Living on the Moon or Mars will be arduous and stressful, so the first inhabitants will probably spend only a few years there at a time and are unlikely to start a family.
But once people do take up permanent residency off-Earth, there are still many unknowns. First, little research has been done on the biology of pregnancy andreproductive healthin a space or low-gravity environment like theMoonorMars. It’s possible there will be unexpected hazards to the fetus or mother. Second, babies are fragile, and raising them is not easy. The infrastructure of these bases would have to be sophisticated to make some version of normal family life possible, a process that will take decades.
With these uncertainties in mind, it seems likely that the first off-Earth baby will be born much closer to home. A Dutch startup called SpaceLife Origin wants to send a heavily pregnant woman 250 miles up just long enough togive birth. They talk a good story, but the legal, medical and ethical obstacles are formidable. Another company, called Orbital Assembly Corporation, plans to open aluxury hotelin orbit in 2027 called the Voyager Station. Current plans show that it would hold 280 guests and 112 crew members, with its spinning-wheel design providing artificial gravity. But thebreathless news reportsomit any discussion of thedifficulty and costof such a project.
However, on April 12, 2021, NASA announced that it is considering allowing areality TV showto send a civilian to the International Space Station and film them for 10 days. It’s plausible that this idea could be extended, with a wealthy couple booking a long-term stay for the entire process from conception to birth in orbit.
At the moment, there’s no evidence anyone has had sex in space. But with about 600 people having been in Earth orbit – including one NASA couple who kept theirmarriage a secret– one space historian was able to gather plenty of Space Agesalacious moments.
My guess is that sometime around 2040, a unique individual will be born. They may carry the citizenship of their parents, or they may be born in a facility operated by a corporation and end upstateless. But I prefer to think of this future person as the first true citizen of the galaxy.
This article byChris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy,University of Arizona, is republished fromThe Conversationunder a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.
Story byThe Conversation
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